Testing and dating of structural changes in practice dailyrecord dating

This site stores nothing other than an automatically generated session ID in the cookie; no other information is captured.In general, only the information that you provide, or the choices you make while visiting a web site, can be stored in a cookie.To derive mortality rates and construct life tables, we used age-specific population counts and death counts from the Human Mortality Database in the age groups (0, 1–4, 5–9, …, 80–84, 85 years) (Human Mortality Database ).

If this was not the case, then researchers should aim to identify other factors that additionally explain irregular mortality trends.

The impact of smoking on trends in male mortality was tested using data for the period 1950–2011 from 20 OECD countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Spain, Finland, France, Scotland, England & Wales, Northern Ireland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland and the USA.

) on the link between smoking prevalence and mortality is a first indication of the awareness of this factor in the actuarial field.

More recently, demographers have developed projection models that take smoking into account by including data on the intensity of smoking either directly from health surveys or indirectly from observed trends in lung cancer (King and Soneji ).

In the past, official projections and expert appraisals were often too pessimistic, failed to foresee the huge improvements in life expectancy, and often underestimated the potential for a further decline in mortality (Stoeldraijer et al. This displaces earlier approaches that also incorporated external information such as biological reasoning, expert knowledge and information on causes of death, which often proved to make projections worse rather than better (Wilmoth ) demonstrated that the central mortality time trend in the USA between 19 could best be described by a simple straight line, which provides a solid basis for further linear extrapolation of the decline in mortality.

This remarkable regularity of the decline in mortality rates has been confirmed for many other high-income countries, so that linear extrapolation became the leading paradigm of mortality projections (Tuljapurkar et al. However, past mortality trends were not linear in all countries and subpopulations.One possible explanation for the presence of structural breaks in mortality trends is the distorting impact of the progression of the tobacco epidemic that affected male mortality trends mainly during the 1970s and 1980s, i.e., the periods in which many of the structural breaks were detected (Janssen et al. After adjusting for the distorting effects of smoking, trends in male life expectancy were more linear over time, more similar between the countries, and closer to the already more linear trends of females (Bongaarts ).Further, a recent study documented that the smoking prevalence in 10 countries was negatively correlated with both the compression of the age-at-death distribution and the delay of aging (Janssen et al.It was found that removing the impact of smoking from mortality trends took away more than half of the 12 detected trend breaks.For the remaining trend breaks, adjusting for smoking attenuated the degree of change in mortality decline.This study tests whether the impact of the tobacco epidemic explains the structural changes in mortality decline, as it is presumed in earlier studies.